The Automobile disruption

When evaluating the Transportation industry of the future, it is not hard to see that there is a major disruption coming to us very quickly. We are seeing every internal combustion engine car manufacturer make a statement that they will be moving to a solely electric car market, by 2030.  You have also seen states like California and New York pass laws recently where they will be banning sales of gas-powered cars (CA) in 2035 or setting a 100% emission free goal (NY), for 2035 as well.  Now knowing that internal combustion engine cars have an expiration date, we can look to the future of what the electric car market can look like. First off let’s look at the differences in internal combustion engine cars and electric cars.  Then we will look at some of the metrics of the electric car market.  I will review coming technology advances that can really transform our world. Take Your Retirement Readiness Quiz Now

The differences between an Electric car and an ICE car are as follows :

  1.  An ICE car has approximately 2,000 moving pieces vs., and electric car has about 20.  The impact of this is Electric cars have a life expectancy of 500,000-to-1-million-mile life vs an ICE which has about a 120k to 150k mile life, without major replacement of parts.
  2. Electric cars are 10x cheaper to charge than to fill up with gas.
  3. Tesla’s self-driving cars are currently 8.8 times safer than humans driving a car. The problem with when a tesla is not working right it is obvious to us humans what needs to change to fix it.  But we do not carry that awareness or judgement to the road full time.
  4. One of the fears with an electric car is what happens if I run out of electricity.  The longest charge per mile is currently Lucid motors which will take an electric car up to 520 miles on one charge.  Most of the Tesla’s will go easily over 400 miles per charge.  With your typical Gas-powered car with a 20-gallon gas tank and avg mpg at 20 mile per gallon the average gas car will go about 400 miles.
  5. There are currently about 150k gas stations in the US vs 42000 charging stations.  Although Tesla has announced they will have universal charging in their charging centers, so there will not be special charging stations for certain cars but not others.  The other advantage is currently everyone would be able to charge their car at home if they own a home.  Like filling up your car everyday when you get home.  So, the only issue with recharging and running out of gas would be a long road trip.  With this planned out not big issue to overcome.  The charging time can take longer than normal, however.
  6.  Other changes that are coming with this upset.  First most electric cars are sold with out a salesperson or dealership.  2ndTesla carries its own type of discounted car insurance.  3rdwhen self-driving is given a green light as safe it will free up countless hours of time where we are using time in driving, but that time will now be freed up to work, catch up with friends, spend time on social media, review your stock portfolio, create an NFT.  4thYour car will not require the same maintenance as an electric car.  And 5thWhen Full Self Driving cars are a reality you may not own a car, because quite simply you may not want the expense.  It will be cheaper to rely on a taxi service like uber.
  7. It is estimated that when full self-driving cars are widely adopted the average cost to go a mile will be anywhere from 10 cents to 20 cents.  Another way of looking at this is the average family will save between $5,000 to $10,000 a year in transportation costs, not really factoring in all the time savings of not having to drive.  When Full Self driving is certified as safe what we can see is many people will choose not to own a car anymore.  It will be cheaper and easier to order a Tesla Taxi service like uber than to go through the hassle of owning a car.
  8. The other side of this is to think about the savings in our supply chain systems.  In history when you go back in time some of the hardest economic times our country has faced were centered around the price of gasoline going up in price.  The reason this created such havoc is the US is a big geographic country, and it has a lot of goods and services being transported in Semi trucks going around the country.  Imagine when these goods and services are transported without the expense of a driver, and the cost of fuel is negligible, how much expense is eliminated from the cost of transportation of goods and services from across the country, how much less cost is in every item we buy?
I think the transition has already started; the traditional car industry has started to see sales decline According to Cathie Woods tweet she has seen sales of traditional auto manufactures drop from a rate of 18.5 million in February annualized to 13.1 million annualized in August.  Also seeing things like Amazon order 100,000 vehicles order from sister company Rivian (a new electric car company), is 100,000 less vehicle vans being created by a gas-powered manufacturer. What are the impacts of the transition to electric cars from gas powered cars, many are good for America and the average American family, but there is a cost to destruction of a new technology?  There are a lot of people with jobs currently that can be displaced, here is a list of all the industries that I see can be upset.
  1. Oil
  2. Traditional Auto manufacturers
  3. Gas Stations
  4. Car Dealerships
  5. Ownership of a gas-powered car.  Resale value could drop very fast
  6. Car insurance companies and Agencies
  7. Mechanics
  8. Auto parts manufacturers and stores
  9. Oil Changing stations
  10. Car wash stations
If you have ownership in any one of these areas you may see an upset in the value of the asset you own.  One of my biggest concerns is for the average American who owns stock in their mutual funds, ETFs, and pensions that exposes their money to a declining stock price in some of the industries I mentioned above.   That in my opinion is right around the corner.  Between now September of 2021 and 2025 I believe we will see a major change in the auto industry and transportation in general.  Will your stock portfolio be ready for the challenge? There are also many other disruptions out there to look out for.  Blockchain and crypto currency technologies can dramatically change the banking industry, and exchange industry.  Solar and Wind with the Electric battery packs can easily upset the traditional energy manufacturing like coal, nuclear, natural gas.  Artificial Intelligence can upset our life by making things happen faster than we expect.  The normal trial and error process we go through as humans has been speed up through AI. If you would like to learn more about how we are helping clients prepare for the upcoming disruptions please schedule a call to talk to one of our representatives. Contact Us Today To Schedule A Call To Discuss Your Options The opinions expressed herein are those of the firm and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.